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DawnOdds
DawnOdds

Tools

Value screen

Find bets with value. We compare our calculated chance (fair odds) to the best market odds to spot positive edges — the bets that are priced bigger than they should be.

Find bets where the odds are better than fair value. We estimate the true chance, compare it to the best available odds, and highlight positive value (edge).

Screening the markets…

TipFocus on edges of 3% or higher and start with High confidence: those chances are in markets we have checked against results.

How value works

  1. We estimate the true chance of each outcome (such as a team’s chance to win).

  2. We convert that chance to fair odds and compare it with the best available market odds.

  3. If the market odds are higher than our fair odds, the bet has value (a positive edge).

How value works

A bet has value when the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the fair odds (our true chance). The bigger the difference, the greater the edge.